International Journal of Economics and Statistics

E-ISSN: 2309-0685
Volume 9, 2021

Notice: As of 2014 and for the forthcoming years, the publication frequency/periodicity of NAUN Journals is adapted to the 'continuously updated' model. What this means is that instead of being separated into issues, new papers will be added on a continuous basis, allowing a more regular flow and shorter publication times. The papers will appear in reverse order, therefore the most recent one will be on top.

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Volume 9, 2021

Title of the Paper: Evaluation of Efficiency and Its Determinants in Croatian Hotel Industry


Authors: Maja Pervan, Petra Babic

Pages: 108-115

DOI: 10.46300/9103.2021.9.17     XML

Abstract: The main objective of this research was to evaluate the efficiency of Croatian hotels and provide insights into the sources of their efficiency. In order to obtain set goals, a two-stage analysis was performed on a sample of 69 large and medium-size hotels that were operating in Croatia in 2019. In the first stage of analysis, the efficiency scores of hotels were obtained by using Data envelopment analysis (DEA), whereas in the second stage of analysis, achieved efficiency coefficients were served as dependent variable in a truncated regression model in which hotel’s ownership, age, location, size and star rating were applied as independent variables. As this is the first time that efficiency of Croatian hotel industry is investigated with the application of truncated regression analysis, this research contributes to the existing literature by shading new lights on the sources of hotels’ efficiency from the perspective of a country heavily relaying on seasonal seaside tourism. Results of the research showed that all analysed variables (except age) play significant and important role in determining the achieved level of efficiency.

Title of the Paper: Determinants of Tourism Demand in Croatia


Authors: Maja Pervan, Ena Jurić

Pages: 102-107

DOI: 10.46300/9103.2021.9.16     XML

Abstract: Due to its significant contribution to the prosperity and growth of economies, tourism industry has always been the one that attracted the attention of many practitioners and researchers who have tried in different ways and from different aspects to identify the key variables that determine tourism demand. The importance of tourism is especially evident in Croatia for which the contribution of travel and tourism industry to GDP and total economy employment amounts 25% and 25.1% respectively. Having in mind the importance and the role that tourism has, the main objective of this research is to examine the influence of different factors on tourism demand for Croatia. The analysis is conducted on the sample of 16 countries of origin and 9 competitor countries during the period 2012-2019 with the application of dynamic panel data model. All variables encompassed in the model i.e., price, income, corruption, terrorism and investments, show statistically significant influence on tourist arrivals in Croatia.

Title of the Paper: Evaluating Freight Forwarders in the Air Cargo Industry


Authors: Elif B. Kiziltas, Zeynep Sener, Mehtap Dursun

Pages: 97-101

DOI: 10.46300/9103.2021.9.15     XML

Abstract: Freight forwarders are of great importance in the air cargo industry. As the cargo revenue constitutes an important source for airline companies, the evaluation of freight forwarders is vital for airlines’ success. This study employs DEMATEL method in order to prioritize the determined criteria for evaluating freight forwarders from the point of view of an airline. The calculated importance weights are used in an illustrative problem where the ranking of freight forwarders are obtained by employing the simple additive weighting method.

Title of the Paper: Domain-specific Modelling of Business Processes


Authors: Zdenek Melis, Jaroslav Zacek, Frantisek Hunka

Pages: 90-96

DOI: 10.46300/9103.2021.9.14     XML

Abstract: The paper deals with the value modelling of business processes using the REA ontology. This ontology, which has its roots in accounting systems, provides a comprehensive framework to business process modelling. The REA ontology is focused on modelling values of resources of business processes. A business process model, which uses this ontology, introduces two levels of abstraction - the operational level and the policy level. That fact allows a greater range of possibilities of usage compared to standard modelling methods. The paper describes the use of domain-specific modelling to create a modelling tool based on the REA ontology. This approach allows creating a tool that uses specific properties of the ontology to ensure validation of the model and automatic source code generation.

Title of the Paper: The Analysis of Total Amount of Energy Consumption and Structure in China


Authors: Liu Hua, Guan Ye-qing

Pages: 83-89

DOI: 10.46300/9103.2021.9.13     XML

Abstract: This paper built up GM(1,1) models for energy production and consumption in China. Then predicted and analyzed total amount of energy production and consumption in China as well as the structure of energy. The study showed that GM(1,1) model can simulate and predict the trend of the total amount of energy consumption and the structure well. In the future, the structure of energy consumption will be optimized. The proportion of coal and oil will decrease and the proportion of gas and renewable energy sources will increase in order to fill the gap.

Title of the Paper: Development Against Poverty: A Systemic Model Design Based on Empirical Evidence


Authors: Heriberto E. Cuanalo de la Cerda

Pages: 75-82

DOI: 10.46300/9103.2021.9.12     XML

Abstract: The world’s poor numbered almost 2.8 billion in 2001, and 2.5 billion in 2005. During a decade of participatory research in a village in Yucatan, Mexico, we built a systemic model of transition from poverty to wellbeing. Households are the basic units because they are the source of human biological and cultural reproduction. Poverty is characterized by low levels of basic needs (i.e. education, health, income and capital). We applied a strategy of innovation and multiple goals, and exploited interaction between variables, in successive approaches within time cycles. Model application improved child nutrition, investment and savings, and credits levels

Title of the Paper: Technical Efficiency and the Factors that Affect it in Rice Production in Central Sulawesi of Indonesia


Authors: Muhardi, Effendy

Pages: 69-74

DOI: 10.46300/9103.2021.9.11     XML

Abstract: Most of the population of Asia depends on consuming rice to support their lives. This implies that rice production needs attention. The existence of inefficiencies in lowland rice production could reduce rice yields for consumption, so the measurement of technical efficiency in lowland rice production needed to be studied. This research aimed to analyze the level of technical efficiency in lowland rice cultivation and identify the factors that affected it. The research was done in Palolo and Torue Sub-District Indonesia. The number of samples used was 249 lowland rice farmlands consisting of 106 farmers of organic lowland rice cultivation and 143 farmers of inorganic lowland rice cultivation. The results show that land, fertilizer, seeds, and labor had a positive and significant effect on lowland rice production. The average technical efficiency of lowland rice cultivation was around 78.2%. The results also show that manager education, extension contacts, superior seeds, and organic lowland rice cultivation have a significant effect on the level of technical efficiency in lowland rice production. We concluded that there was an opportunity for farmers to increase lowland rice yields if they could manage production factors in an efficient manner. The government could provide support for farmers, such as formal and informal education, extension, superior seeds, and ready-to-use organic materials.

Title of the Paper: Fraud Diamond Theory in Detecting Financial Reporting Manipulation: A Case of Mining Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange


Authors: Mafudi, Atiek Sri Purwati, Agung Praptapa, Sugiarto, Yonatan Daya Persada

Pages: 61-68

DOI: 10.46300/9103.2021.9.10     XML

Abstract: Forensic accounting helps auditor in collecting information while conducting necessary assessment to discover fraud practice. One popular theory in the field is the fraud diamond theory. This study implements the theory to detect the existence of financial statement fraud on mining sector in Indonesia. The diamond fraud model as the enhancement of the triangle theory of fraud concerns budget priorities, financial stability, inefficient monitoring, adjustments to the auditor and changes to the manager. As a dependent variable, financial statement manipulation funded by income control is used. The sampling of 9 companies listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange in the mining sector in 2017-2019 was chosen using purposeful sampling methods, resulting in 27 data observations. The data testing was performed by a multi-linear regression method. This study showed that financial targets and financial stability affect the occurrence of fraud in financial reports. Simultaneously, insufficient monitoring, auditing and change of the director have no impact on the financial statements.

Title of the Paper: Are Resource-Rich Regions Impacted More by Covid-19 Pandemic? Comparing Economic and Mobility Impact in Indonesia’s Provinces


Authors: Rian Hilmawan, Yesi Aprianti

Pages: 52-60

DOI: 10.46300/9103.2021.9.9     XML

Abstract: The coronavirus pandemic has caused negative impact on economy as it limits people interactions from their normal life. This paper tries to compare the effects on economic growth and visits by locals to central economic places (retail and recreation, grocery and pharmacy stores, parks, and workplaces) of Covid-19 in Indonesia’s provinces as social restrictions applied. By using Google’s mobility report data combined with the second quarterly GRDP data across Indonesia’s sub-national level, we compare economic and mobility performances between “the treated provinces” located in Sumatra, Kalimantan and Papua Islands (SKP) who’s their economy has been dominated by natural resources-based sectors (e.g., palm oil, natural gas, oil and coal) and “the untreated provinces” in Java-Bali-and Eastern Regions (Sulawesi, Maluku, Nusa Tenggara), henceforth JBE. We visualize and provide scatterplots to depict relationships between selected variables. We also test whether each impact differs between SKP and JBE. Our study finds that while almost all provinces have been impacted negatively during the pandemic, its effects graphically differ among regions, while Java’s provinces have looked to be affected strongly. However, our statistical analyses based on Welch’s and Levene’s tests provide weak evidence that the pandemic harms regions disproportionately.

Title of the Paper: Forecasting Model of Production and Price of Grains Commodity in Central Sulawesi


Authors: Muhardi, Dizzi Evansyah, Made Antara, Effendy

Pages: 47-51

DOI: 10.46300/9103.2021.9.8     XML

Abstract: Food derives from biological resources, animals, and water, whether processed or not processed, meant as food or drink for human consumption. Food commodities have often been referred to as staples or basic needs of Indonesian people and others. The availability of staples has played a strategic role in stabilizing food security, economic security, and national political stability, leading to the issue of availability of staples receiving very serious attention from the Indonesia government. This study analyzed the best model of production forecasting and prices of rice and corn in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. The study used the ARIMA method to predict the production and prices of rice and corn. The results of the analysis showed that the best model was the forecasting model of ARIMA rice production (4,0,0) with decreasing production forecast data trends and corn with the ARIMA model (1,0,0) with increasing production forecast data trends. The forecasting model of ARIMA rice price (2,2,0) with decreasing price forecast data trends and ARIMA corn prices (2,2,0) with increasing price forecast data trends.

Title of the Paper: Efficiency and Productivity of Textile Industry Sub-sector with Total Factor Productivity Approaches


Authors: Lies Maria Hamzah

Pages: 41-46

DOI: 10.46300/9103.2021.9.7     XML

Abstract: The development of the manufacturing industry in Indonesia becomes a top priority because the manufacturing industry is a leading sector that can encourage other sectors and has forward and backward linkage between sectors.The difference in the use of technologythat still relatively low compared to the productivity of capital and labor will lead to differences in efficiency and productivity of each manufacturing industry sub-sector. The textile industry sub-sector contributes high amount to GDP and continues to increase every year. Total factor productivity (TFP) is considered a very comprehensive measure of productivity and efficiency.This measure explains the changes in production caused by changes in the amount of inputs used, changes in technology, capacity utilization and the quality of production factors. This study aims to analyze the effect of capital, labor, raw materials and energy to the output of the textile industry and textile products (TPT) (KBLI 14.15) with the Solow residual TFP approach. Another aim is to look at the efficiency and productivity of the textile industry sub-sector.The research used panel data regression with OLS model. The results of TFP estimation and TPT industry efficiency are different between TPT sub-sectors. TPT has integrity between downstream industries and upstream industries. Some of the obstacles in the textile industry in Indonesia include the high dependence of the Indonesian industry (TPT) on imported raw fiber materials (90%). Most of the age of the machines used by the TPT industry was old, this affects the TFP value.

Title of the Paper: Determinants of Productivity in Brazil: An Empyrical Analysis of the Period 1996-2020


Authors: Hugo Ferreira Braga Tadeu, Jersone Tasso Moreira Silva

Pages: 30-40

DOI: 10.46300/9103.2021.9.6     XML

Abstract: Empirical studies regarding the determinants of productivity in developing countries, including Brazil, have demonstrated the negative impact of high inflation rates on the industrial capacity. However, the recent Brazilian experience clearly shows that stabilization since 1996, in and of itself, is not capable of recovering the investment rates. With this in mind, this study's goal is to answer, with the help of econometric simulation models, the questions: (i) what are the key-drivers to assess the Brazilian economy since 1996?; and (ii) what are the key-factors to be considered when investments are made, particulary in productivity? To answer the questions we evaluated the impacts of macro-economic variables on private investments, using a strategic bias and a long term vision plan. The estimates demonstrate empirical crowding-in evidence of public investments in infrastructure over private investments as a real impact to productivity. As for public invetsments (non-infrastructural) we suggest that the crowding-in impact dislocates private investments. All these indicators were obtained as presented in the therory, with the exception of the real interest rates variable (r), in which we observed that the coefficient is positive and insignificant in the estimated equation.

Title of the Paper: Family Business: Evaluation of the Support System and Development


Authors: Kuvandikov Shuhrat Oblokulovich

Pages: 27-29

DOI: 10.46300/9103.2021.9.5     XML

Abstract: This article examines the progress made in strengthening the legal framework for family entrepreneurship in Uzbekistan, and the criteria for assessing the effectiveness of their support system. At the same time, factors influencing the effectiveness and development of family business were evaluated using econometric methods. Also developed scientific-practical recommendations and conclusions aimed at the development of family business in the regions.

Title of the Paper: Environmental/Economic Power Dispatch Problem /Renewable Energy using Firefly Algorithm


Authors: Mimoun Younes, Riad Lakhdar Kherfene, Fouad Khodja

Pages: 20-26

DOI: 10.46300/9103.2021.9.4     XML

Abstract: Exploitation and development of renewable energy such as solar and wind energy is a very important alternative to reduce gas emissions, reduce the bill for power generation. This paper examines the implications of renewable energy deployment in power generation with the classical energy system, managed by an intelligent method, to minimize the cost of production of electric energy and also reduce the emission of gases. Simulation results on the 10 units power system prove the efficiency of this method thus confirming its capacity to solve the environmental/economic power dispatch problem with the renewable energy.

Title of the Paper: The Small Hydropower Plant Income Maximization using Games Theory


Authors: Antans Sauhats, Renata Varfolomejeva, Inga Umbrasko, Hasan Coban

Pages: 14-19

DOI: 10.46300/9103.2021.9.3     XML

Abstract: This paper is devoted to the consideration of case of the use of small rivers energy, the current system of support relevant projects, its drawbacks and opportunities to remove them. Cooperative game theory approach is used for analysis of regime management of the small-scale hydro power plant (SHPP). Technical and economical aspects of the issue are observed. The obtained results demonstrate the validity of the cooperation for obtaining additional income.

Title of the Paper: Knowledge Management Innovation for Sustainable Development in the Context of the Economic Crisis


Authors: Adrian Ioana, Augustin Semenescu, Cezar Florin Preda

Pages: 8-13

DOI: 10.46300/9103.2021.9.2     XML

Abstract: The trade (qualitative and quantitative level of trade) can promote the concept of sustainable development. The concept of Sustainable Development involves the implementation of theoretical and practical components for making decisions in any situation in which features a man-type medium, be it the environment, economic or social. The goals of sustainable development include the harmonization of the economic, social and environmental targets. This paper presents the main types of the correlations: Trade – Sustainable Development – Economic Crisis. The Sustainable Development (SD) concept is also analyzed in direct correlation with the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) concept. The SD concept involves the implementation of theoretical and practical components for making decisions in any situation in which a man-type medium, be it the environment, economic or social features. The Corporations (qualitative and quantitative level of trade) can promote the concept of sustainable development. The goals of sustainable development include the harmonization of the economic, social and environmental targets. This paper presents the main research on the main types of the correlations: Corporate Social Responsibility (including trade) – Sustainable Development – Economic Crisis.

Title of the Paper: Research on Volatility of Return of Chinese Stock-Market based on Generalized Hyperbolic Distribution Family


Authors: Wu Libin, Liu Shengyu, Gao Jun

Pages: 1-7

DOI: 10.46300/9103.2021.9.1     XML

Abstract: Financial time series often present a nonlinear characteristics, and the distribution of financial data often show fat tail and asymmetry, but this don’t match with the standpoint that time series obey normal distribution of return on assets, etc, which is considered by linear parametric modeling in the traditional linear framework. This paper has a systematic introduction of the definitions of GH distribution family and related statistical characteristics, which is based on reviewing the basic properties of the ARCH/GARCH model family and a common distribution of its disturbance. And select the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shanghai and Shenzhen (CSI) 300 index daily return rate index to estimate volatility model. GH distribution is used for further fitting to disturbance. This is done after take full account of the effective extraction of the model for the disturbance distribution information. The results show that the GH distribution can effectively fitting residuals distribution of the volatility models about series on return rate.